What’s Next for the Abraham Accords Under President Trump?

People of the Pod

The Abraham Accords marked a significant foreign policy achievement for President Donald Trump at the end of his first term in 2020. What’s next for the Abraham Accords under a new Trump administration?

Joining us is Rob Greenway, Director of the Allison Center for National Security at the Heritage Foundation and former senior director for Middle Eastern and North African Affairs on the National Security Council, to discuss the opportunities and challenges President Trump will face in the Middle East. Guest hosted by Benjy Rogers, AJC’s Director for Middle East and North Africa Initiatives, Greenway draws on his firsthand experience with the Abraham Accords to explore how these agreements can be expanded and how security and economic cooperation between Israel and its neighbors can be strengthened.

Resources:

• AJC Experts Assess the Global Impact of Trump’s Election

• What President-Elect Trump’s Nominees Mean for Israel, Antisemitism, and More

• The Abraham Accords, Explained

Listen – AJC Podcasts:

• The Forgotten Exodus: with Hen Mazzig, Einat Admony, and more.

• People of the Pod:

• Honoring Israel’s Lone Soldiers This Thanksgiving: Celebrating Service and Sacrifice Away from Home

• The ICC Issues Arrest Warrants: What You Need to Know

• What President-Elect Trump’s Nominees Mean for Israel, Antisemitism, and More

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Transcript of Conversation with Rob Greenway:

Manya Brachear Pashman:

The landmark achievement of the first Trump Administration was President Trump’s ability to successfully broker peace treaties between Israel and the Arab countries of the UAE, Bahrain, and Morocco. While much has changed since the September 2020 signing of the Abraham Accords, there are high hopes that a second Trump Administration will once again focus on brokering Arab-Israeli peace. This week, my colleague Benjy Rogers, AJC’s Director for Middle East and North Africa Initiatives, invited an expert from the first Trump administration to share his insights on what to expect. Benjy, the mic is yours.

Benjamin Rogers:

What can we expect from the incoming Trump administration, particularly when it comes to the committee's policy and the future of the Abraham Accords and regional integration? To help us break it all down, we're joined by someone who's been at the center of these historic developments, Rob Greenway.

Rob is the director of the Allison Center for National Security at the Heritage Foundation, where he formulates policy to defend American freedom and prosperity. Rob has first hand experience with the Abraham Accords, having served as Deputy Assistant to the President and senior director of the National Security Council's Middle Eastern and North African Affairs Directorate during the first Trump administration.

Rob has more than 30 years in public service, including as President and Executive Director of the Abraham Accords Peace Institute, advocating for the expansion of the agreements he helped craft. Rob has also served as Senior Intelligence Officer at the Defense Intelligence Agency, and is a decorated combat veteran within the US Army Special Forces.

Rob, welcome to People of the Pod. We are honored to have you here.

Rob Greenway:

It's my great pleasure. Thanks for having me.

Benjamin Rogers:

Let's jump right into it. Much has changed in the Middle East since the last Trump administration, while the hope of the Abraham Accords continued into the Biden administration, the horrors of October 7 in its aftermath have transformed the region.

How do you think the next Trump administration will address the ongoing conflicts in the Middle East, and do you see renewed hope for continuing to deepen and expand the Abraham Accords?

Rob Greenway:

It's a great question. I'll start in reverse order, because that's the optimistic part, right? The hope in all of the relatively dark circumstances and the escalation of the conflict that’s really accelerated, but didn't begin in October the seventh, but it certainly accelerated dramatically. I certainly judge that there is hope. And there's hope because the shared interest between Israel and its neighboring countries is, in fact, very strong.

And that the US fundamentally, and certainly under a Trump administration, I think, will reprioritize efforts to normalize Israel's relations with its neighbors, to confront shared adversaries, which obviously is Iran, its surrogates and proxies, including Hamas and Hezbollah. But also because the economic potential has to be unlocked through integration of Israel and its neighbors and the countries within the region.

They all know this, and they all recognize the intrinsic importance of it, so both for security purposes and for economic reasons, the normalization process will be resumed, certainly under a Trump administration as a matter of policy. It is, in many ways, the solution to the problems we're seeing in the region right now.

Benjamin Rogers:

Say a little bit more about that, Rob, if you would, what particular solutions do you think can come as a result of expansion of Abraham Accords, regional integration?

Rob Greenway:

Sure. On the one hand, the practical side of it is Israel's defense is better done working with and through with other partners, not just the United States, but its neighbors, so the extent to which cooperation could be expanded, they can jointly meet the threat from Iran, and will, in fact, have to do so.

Iran, unfortunately, has been fed too long by appeasement the last four years. It's flush with cash. It's at nuclear threshold. The only way for Israel to effectively defend itself is more often than not, working with like-minded partners, and certainly the United States. Together, I think it's easier to provide a defense.

Remember the ballistic missile attacks against Israel, which now unfortunately, have happened twice. It took a regional neighborhood response to that in order to effectively detect and intercept the range of missiles and drones and cruise missiles coming from Iran. That's a picture of what the potential is and should be.

It's also a strong deterrent. When Israel's standing with its partners and allies in the region, it discourages the escalation that Iran is responsible for. And again, the economic potential is also critical, and it's so important that they would protect and defend the relationship, because it's so vital to all of their future potential.

Benjamin Rogers:

I appreciate what you said on defense, and I think that makes a lot of sense, but I want to drill into a little bit more on the economic side of things, because it's easiest to say, hey, look, there's greater ties, there's greater business. This is a region that, little over 10 years ago, went through the Arab Spring. This is a region that is not all the Gulf. This is a region where there's lots of poverty and there's lots of struggles. A region that is impacted by the daily changes throughout the globe. How does economic cooperation address some of those concerns? Address some of those issues? How does a more integrated Middle East, will it actually make your average person on the streets, life better? How do you get there?

Rob Greenway:

So first, a couple of points. If you talk to countries in the region. They all share similar concerns. They look a little different, but they have similar concerns. One is the security environment. Again, each of them have a different focus, but they're all concerned about the security environment, largely again, the threat from Iran.

Second is that they've got a domestic population that, in all too many cases, ultimately will have difficulty finding employment for its large youth population, growing population below the age of 25. They're all very cognizant of this, and they know that the solution is economic integration, regionally and perhaps globally. And so they know that they have a problem. They know that the solution is better integration. It's historically not been the case. Intra-GCC trade has always been less than 15% historically, Europe and Russia are probably still trading more than that now, even though they're at war essentially in Europe, but the GCC has not done so, but they know that they can't sustain it.

Second, how it helps average individuals. The employment opportunities. And look, it's not just integrating the country's economies. The reality is, the strongest economic potential is allowing market markets to be connected between Europe and Asia, through the Middle East. So to move goods and services between Asian and European markets, the Middle East has to be transited.

If you integrate the countries from a transportation standpoint and from an economic standpoint, the potential becomes vast. That's the real economic promise. Integrating a company's bilateral trade with UAE, with Israel, is absolutely spectacular to watch, but that's the beginning. The end is to better integrate economies and markets globally through which the region is a critical transport link. It can happen. They want it to happen, and I think we can make it happen, and I hope we do.

Benjamin Rogers:

That's fascinating. I think it's just such a stark difference in the way we've been approaching the region recently, which is doom and gloom. This is cause for hope. This is a cause for a way forward.

But October 7, we saw, and you've mentioned this country repeatedly, we saw how spoilers can completely upend this hope. You mentioned a little bit, but can you say a little bit more about how the Trump administration is thinking about countries like the Iranian regime, how the Trump administration will ensure that terror organizations like Hezbollah, like Hamas, will not ever be able to threaten this, this pretty remarkable vision that you're sharing today.

Rob Greenway:

It's a great question. Maybe the central question. First, we didn't see this threat manifest itself, even though it was there, latent. It didn't just come into creation on October the seventh. Obviously, it existed during the first Trump term, but it never manifested itself this way because it had boundaries. The boundaries come in two ways. First is an absolute, demonstrable commitment to Israel's security, not question, not speculative, not changing or dynamic as it is now and unfortunately, wanting in too many cases, it was ironclad. Everyone in the region knew it, and everyone saw it, and that's an incredibly important part of deterrence. The second and perhaps even more important is denying resources to your adversaries. It sounds fundamental. You shouldn't pay your enemies to attack you, but that's what appeasement is, and that's what's happened in the last four years of the Biden administration.

You can't give the world's largest state sponsor of terrorism $120 billion of excess revenue and not expect them to engage in terrorism. And so they did. The principal applied the first Trump term will absolutely come back in the second and that's denying them the resources.

And so for us, you know, I watched Hezbollah for decades, and to see them ask for members to donate their organs to raise funds at the end of the maximum economic pressure campaign, by the end of 2020, as a sign of success, in a sense that they were they were deprived and unable to conduct attacks and enter into that risk. I know that that will have a similar result. It's going to take a while to get back to it, but I strongly believe it has to happen, and I believe that it will happen.

Benjamin Rogers:

Thanks Rob. I want to also dive into what's been front and center on a lot of people's rights now, which is Israeli-Palestinian relations. What do you think the Trump approach will be? And this, to me, is particularly interesting, because, you know, we saw early in the Trump administration, the focus on the deal of the century, focus on peace and prosperity. We saw an initial rejection by the Palestinian Authority, by the PLO to any sort of agreement.

We know that many in the Israeli government have a range of views, quite strong views. And I would say the population as a whole, any mechanisms of peace while an ongoing war is happening, particularly in the aftermath of October 7 and something that is more challenging than ever to talk about. How do you see the Israeli Palestinian conflict, and how do you see a Trump administration approaching it?

Rob Greenway:

I believe I've read somewhere. I'm sure you did too. There's nothing new under the sun. And in most cases, there are precedents and examples. Look, for over four decades, people pursued the Israel-Palestine conflict as the central issue in the region, and they made no progress on either front. The region didn't get better, and Israel's relationship with the Palestinians didn't improve, empirically and objectively.

The approach in the Trump administration was, what are the most pressing threats to our interest in the region's interest, including Israel? The answer is Iran, its surrogates and proxies. And ISIS in 2017 as you recall. And so the premise is, start with the highest order of threat. If you get the sequence wrong, you know you're going to inevitably have adverse consequences.

You can't paint the kitchen when your house is on fire. It's not a perfect analogy, but the idea is, we have to deal with the most primary threats first, and if you don't deal with Iran as the principal source of instability in the region, you can't make progress on anything else, including this issue. Second, as we heard from, John Kerry's famous remarks in 2016, deeply held belief then, and I fear still now, you cannot make progress on Israel-Arab relations without making progress on the Palestinian file. And he emphasized, you can't. And obviously you can. We proved it in the form of the Abraham Accords, and President Trump led the way. And I think that will come back again.

And that, I think, is the key to success. But everyone I talked to in Israel tells me the same thing, the two state solution is dead after October the seventh. At some point it may resurrect itself. I think at the end of the day, we focus on the primary threat, build a stronger relationship between Israel and its neighbors, and then we can also improve the lives of the Palestinian people in a variety of ways, which the Abraham Accords were designed to do and its members insisted on.

And second, as you mentioned, the peace to prosperity plan, I think we'll end up leveraging the work done there, the fantastic work that Jared did, just he did with the Abraham Accords, and resurrect that for what needs to happen next in places like Gaza and South Lebanon. And I think that will improve the lives of the Palestinian people. So it's a reverse sequencing, essentially. I think that gets to a different outcome. But if you start with an impossible, intractable problem, everything else becomes difficult.

Benjamin Rogers:

Fascinating. Saudi Arabia. What do you think can be done? What do you think relations are between the US and Saudi Arabia, between Israel and Saudi Arabia. I know there's been strong comments that have got a lot of attention as of late, but where do you see that relationship going?

Rob Greenway:

I think the good news is that President Trump's relationship with the kingdom and with Saudi leadership like the region, was exceptional. His first visit as President of the United States on May 17, was to Riyadh and then to Jerusalem, and then to Rome, very deliberately and very intentionally. And the policies he set forth were what we carried as guidance for the four years that followed. And I think it bore fruit.

That relationship is key, and I think it's going to be restored. It was deeply damaged on a number of fronts under the Biden-Harris administration, I think that damage is going to be undone by a different relationship and approach. And second, look, we've had decades, generations of cooperation with Saudi Arabia, as we have with Israel, and that puts President Trump in a unique position to be able to broker the inevitable peace between the two.

But I think it's something that, like most negotiations, and certainly in the Middle East, we should give space for the new administration to do this privately and not have a public negotiation, because all that's going to do is complicated for all parties, and it'll make the end objective more difficult. I think it'll happen. I think it needs to happen.

Last thing I'll say is, it isn't as much about security, although that's certainly a critical part of it. It's also, again, about managing global markets between the United States and Saudi Arabia, because this is what, obviously, for our purposes and for the region's purposes, we've got to be able to do. As long as China is dependent upon Middle Eastern oil and gas, we've got to be able to exercise some control over it. And we can't let Russia, as an exporter and our partners and allies in the region, manage global exports to China.

So this isn't limited to the region itself. Our relationship with Riyadh is vital. It is strategic. It is necessary. It helped us prevail in the Cold War against the Soviet Union. It'll be absolutely vital in competition with China and with Russia. So it's critical on a number of fronts. President Trump instinctively understands this better than I think anyone, and I think he's in a unique position to close the real deal of the century.

Benjamin Rogers:

Staying on this topic, for a little bit, where else, what other countries in the Middle East do you think are going to be of a particular focus to the incoming Trump administration?

Rob Greenway:

So not surprisingly, Riyadh would unlikely be the only country to join the Accords, not followed by others. So I could think of most other countries in the Gulf would be good candidates. But I also think it's not limited to the region, right? There are a number of other Muslim majority countries that are not necessarily Arab, that reside outside the region that would be enormously beneficial from an economic standpoint and from a diplomatic standpoint. And we had a number of conversations with many countries that fall into this category.

So there's, I think, a new vista that opens with the successful conclusion of getting the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia to establish normalized diplomatic relations. And again, I think if you confront Iran, this becomes possible. If you don't confront Iran, it's virtually impossible.

Benjamin Rogers:

I want to zoom out, but before I do, you have, you have explained how you've explained in detail, where the Trump administration may go. You've expressed some criticism of the Biden administration. Is there anything related to Middle East policy that the Biden administration pursued?

Things like the Negev Forum, things like the concept of I2U2, of IMEC, things where do you think those are actually helpful mechanisms that may continue into a Trump administration? Or do you think this is essentially going to be a return to priorities that were started in the first Trump administration?

Rob Greenway:

I think it's going to be more of the latter than the former. Negev ultimately was taking the Abraham Accords and introducing it into a multilateral fora. But the attempt, I think, was ultimately not successful, not because of October the seventh, but because one they made it a diplomatic conference, which we deliberately didn't do with the Abraham Accords. We were more focused on getting the businessmen together and the parts of the government that dealt with trade and concrete relationships, because that's what they wanted.

So we didn't try and impose a forum on them. We tried to allow it to grow organically in the areas where they were interested, and, frankly, where you could measure the progress. I mean, as you know, having a diplomatic conference is not a difficult thing to do. Having one with an outcome might be a bit of a challenge. So we were inclined to approach it from an economic perspective. Ultimately, we'd like to see it get to the security domain. I think there is a difference. But again, it's an extension of the Accords that were built during the Trump administration.

They also intended to insert the Palestinian issue into the equation, and they worked to get it introduced into the forum. I don't know the wisdom behind it, and ultimately, I think it became an impediment, but I will say that ultimately, they did come to the conclusion the Abraham Accords was a good thing. The Abraham Accords was beneficial to the region, and the region wanted to see the US invested in it.

Unfortunately, I think it came too late, and it was overshadowed by the intrinsic policy contradiction of feeding Iran and attempting to deal with the consequences of it. So you can't feed the greatest threat to instability in the region and attempt to work together towards normalization at the same time, the two objectives are in complete opposition to one another. And so they were working across purposes, and the region saw it, and I think they were unable to get progress because of it.

Sudan is probably the only accord member country that unfortunately has collapsed into virtual civil war, which was again a very tragic and unnecessary result of bad policy choice. And it can and it must be reversed. And I trust the Trump second Trump administration would make that a priority as well.

Benjamin Rogers:

I'm happy to hear that, because that's an area that we have focused on, and I think absolutely heartbreaking to see what's unfolding in Sudan right now.

I'd be remiss if I didn't make a plug for AJC Center for a New Middle East, which is something our CEO Ted Deutch announced in June, and essentially our concept is, let's take the decades of trust that AJC has cultivated over the last 70+ years. Let's take the network that we have in places like Europe, in the Middle East, with our office in Abu Dhabi and in Jerusalem. We have offices across Asia. We've got offices in Africa.

How can we use that architecture to be a helpful model in bringing people together? So I wanted to ask you, as someone with so much experience on this, what role do you see for civil society organizations in being able to help cultivate, reinvigorate, bring together more hope to a region that is really reeling?

Rob Greenway:

Having come from the Abraham Accords Peace Institute, where this was our purpose, and having worked with your offices and your organization and many others, I'm convinced that there is an absolute necessity for private organizations to help contribute to and to ensure that there's continuity and successes are sustained. Especially in the people to people contact, but areas like education, in sports and athletics, enormous potential. And it will require private organizations. This is one of many areas where government doesn't do it well. So I think government has opened a door. It can open others.

Private organizations ultimately are going to determine success and failure, and that includes, of course, businesses. So I think it's absolutely essential, and I think that organizations like AJC and others are uniquely positioned to be able to translate the potential into concrete success in a number of different fronts that either government can't do or it's just not well equipped to do.

So 100% agree, and in fact, again, this is too, where more people external to the region can really make a contribution, and small ways can have a massive impact. And we had the luxury of being able to work on a number. And we saw the fruits of that, and I think we'll continue to see. Some of them take decades to materialize, but it's worth it.

Benjamin Rogers:

Amazing. Thanks, Rob. So I promised I would zoom out a little bit, because I know you're not only an expert in the Middle East, but look at the whole globe. Outside of the Middle East, where do you think when it comes to foreign affairs, the Trump administration will be focused? How will it address issues like Russia, Ukraine? How will it address issues like China?

Rob Greenway:

So if you just consider the staggering array of security challenges that the new Trump administration is going to inherit and confront, it can be overwhelming. For two reasons. First, because it's happening on virtually every continent, right, in every cardinal direction you look, there’s not just a crisis, but in many cases, a conflict that is unprecedented or hasn't been seen at this level in a generation. First land war in Europe since the Second World War, a Middle East that hasn't been this unstable since, I think at least 1979, perhaps earlier. These are generational challenges. And I could add to that, of course, China in both the first second island chains and the potential threat against Taiwan. Massive challenges to the international order and the US vital national security interests.

Number two, they're not just connected in a temporal space. Yes, unfortunately, Russia, China, Iran, North Korea, are working together in unprecedented ways. The provision of ballistic missiles and drones from Iran, nuclear technology going in the other direction. All horrible. But the fact that they are connected in ways that are impossible to segregate, so you can't solve one problem while you're waiting to solve the other two. Because the solution to each is integrated to the problem in the other.

And energy, as I mentioned already, is just one of those ways, and perhaps one of the most important.

So if you want to restore maximum economic pressure against Iran–and we have to–you're going to be taking them gradually off the international market. Without disrupting prices in everyone's economies, including ours, you've got to compensate for it. There are ways to do it, but Russia is an exporter too, and China is a consumer. So you think about the sequencing behind how to confront these challenges, it is going to be absolutely one of the most complex I think any presidential administration has faced. And again, economic insecurity is integral. And I say that too, because the Trump administration thankfully at the top, with the President himself and many of his trusted advisors and cabinet officials come from a business background, and they understand the economics, because that's the world in which they grew up in. As well as the security domain.

And I think they're uniquely configured to be able to solve this. And they have the experience of working in these regions. A daunting series of challenges. And I think all of us watching this progress need to give them time and patience, because the scope of these challenges are massive. And I didn't mention, you know, the interior crisis at the border and the millions of illegal immigrants, tens of thousands of which are terrorists or known criminals. And that just adds to the complexity, and also can't be addressed in isolation. So massive challenges, all of them connected, security and economic standpoint, and it's going to take time, but this team and the president, I think, are uniquely postured to be able to do it.

Benjamin Rogers:

Rob, I really want to thank you for everything today. Before we conclude, any final thoughts?

Rob Greenway:

So I'd like to end again on a positive note, because it's easy to get distracted with the crises. The solution to these problems are what make them possible. Seeing the potential is what gives you the drive, the resolve, to fix it, and it also makes it possible. So if there wasn't a good solution to these problems, they would persist.

The reality is that integrating the Middle East and Israel and its neighbors and connecting global markets is key to solving these problems. It's also what's going to prevent it from happening again. If we can lean into it and do it successfully and follow through on what was started, we'll be able to see not only a cessation of these problems, we'll be able to see a real improvement in regional quality of life, and hopefully peace and prosperity will again dominate, rather than conflict and chaos.

Benjamin Rogers:

Alright Rob, thank you so much for your time. We really appreciate it.

Rob Greenway:

My great pleasure. Thanks for having me.