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#467 The Private-Consumption Slowdown: Gauging 2023-24 Economic Trends with DK Joshi
Manage episode 457511172 series 3475089
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In this Special Edition of The Core Report, financial journalist Govind Ethiraj engages with DK Joshi, Chief Economist at CRISIL, to provide a comprehensive analysis of India's economic trajectory. The discussion delves into how investment patterns have evolved since 2019-20, the pandemic’s lasting impact on GDP, and the alternative paths India’s economy could have taken. Joshi sheds light on the critical need to address skill mismatches, prioritise vocational training, and enhance workforce productivity. He examines the unprecedented dip in private consumption for 2023-24 and the complex dynamics of premiumisation affecting the mass market.
The conversation also explores the importance of updating India’s labor data through a new census, the migration of labor from agriculture to high-productivity sectors, and the economic implications of workforce mobility. Climate change perspectives take center stage as Joshi discusses India’s pragmatic approach to balancing environmental goals with affordability and security concerns. Looking ahead to 2025, he provides insights into tariff challenges, India’s strategic global positioning, the transformative role of digitalization, and an optimistic forecast for interest rates. This episode offers a thorough exploration of the forces shaping India's economic future.
(00:00) Introduction and Economic Transformation
(03:12) Migration Trends and Regional Shifts in Agriculture
(07:34) Climate Vulnerability and Its Impact on India
(11:26) Energy Security, Affordability, and Transition Dynamics
(17:03) Climate Adaptation: Food Inflation and Microfinance Challenges
(22:11) The Role of Cold Chains and Food Processing
(26:42) Internal Resilience and Economic Growth Projections for 2025
(31:03) Climate and Migration: Policy Challenges Ahead
(34:25) Global Trade Dynamics and Tariff Implications
(37:19) Cryptocurrency Resurgence and Its Implications
(38:22) Energy Policies and Carbon Capture Technology
(38:53) Domestic Challenges: Food Inflation and Capex Momentum
(39:00) Closing Remarks and Policy Priorities
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