Episode 69: How Terrorist Groups End

Global in the Granite State

Over the course of the past 170 years, the world has experienced many different forms of terrorism designed to create fear, push for political aims, and recruit followers. Groups of varying political ideologies have used terrorism over the years, making this an issue that never really goes away, it simply morphs and changes. However, one thing remains the same... all of these groups eventually come to an end. It may surprise you that the average lifespan of a terrorist group is 8-10 years, which can seem unbelievable with the staying power of groups like al-Qaeda (founded in the 1980s), the "Provisionals" of the IRA (who used Terrorist attacks in Ireland for over 20 years), and the New People's Army (which has utilized terrorist tactics in the Philippines since 1969). These are the outliers rather than the norm.
This episode takes a look at amazing research conducted by Dr. Audrey Kurth Cronin, Director of the Carnegie Mellon Institute for Strategy & Technology, who has collated the ways in which terrorist groups come to an end. Spoiler alert, sometimes these groups morph into something worse, so it is important to understand why terrorist groups exist, what their goals are, and how the global community can work to hasten these groups' turn away from targeting civilians. Take a listen to engage in this global conversation on understanding how terrorism ends.
Purchase Dr. Kurth Cronin's book How Terrorism Ends: Understanding the Decline and Demise of Terrorist Campaigns and her second book Power to the People: How Open Technological Innovation is Arming Tomorrow’s Terrorists to dive even deeper into the topic.
Audrey Kurth Cronin is Trustees Professor of Security and Technology and Director of the Carnegie Mellon Institute for Strategy & Technology (CMIST). Cronin’s best-known book is How Terrorism Ends: Understanding the Decline and Demise of Terrorist Campaigns (Princeton, 2009), which the New Yorker called a “landmark study.” Her latest book, Power to the People: How Open Technological Innovation is Arming Tomorrow’s Terrorists (Oxford, 2020), analyzes emerging technologies and devises a new framework for analyzing 21st century military innovation. It was short-listed for the Lionel Gelber prize and won the 2020 Neave prize.

Cronin was a Marshall Scholar from Princeton, earned a DPhil from Oxford, and was a postdoctoral fellow at Harvard. Formerly Distinguished Professor at American University, she founded and directed the Center for Security, Innovation and New Technology in Washington, DC. She also gained accreditation, founded, and ran the International Security graduate program at George Mason University. She has been director of the core course on War and Statecraft at the National War College, Director of Studies for the Changing Character of War program at Oxford University, and Specialist in Terrorism at the Congressional Research Service. She has also served in the Office of the Secretary of Defense for Policy and frequently advises at senior levels. She was Chairman of the World Economic Forum’s Global Agenda Council on Terrorism and is a life member of the Council on Foreign Relations.