113. The Texas Sharpshooter Fallacy & Confirmation Bias - Facts to Suit Theories Instead of Theories to Suit Facts

Game Theory

In this episode, the hosts discuss the Texas Sharpshooter Fallacy, which is when outcomes are analyzed out of context, giving the illusion of causation rather than attributing the outcome to chance.

They provide examples of this fallacy, such as the alcohol industry pushing back on labels that state alcohol causes cancer.

They also touch on the narcissist's prayer, which is a chain of denial used to avoid responsibility.

The hosts mention the connection between this fallacy and confirmation bias, as people tend to seek out information that supports their existing narrative.

They also hint at the role of conspiracy-minded thinking in this fallacy.

The conversation explores the concept of the Texas Sharpshooter Fallacy and its application in various contexts. It begins with a discussion on Venn diagrams and the history of their invention by John Venn.

The hosts then delve into the Texas Sharpshooter Fallacy, which involves drawing conclusions based on selective data. They provide examples of how this fallacy is used in various fields, including stock market analysis and conspiracy theories.

The conversation concludes with a tribute to Charles Mattson Love, an expert on Easter Island, who appeared on the show Ancient Aliens.

Chapters

00:00

Introduction and Apology for Missing Last Week

06:32 Explanation of the Texas Sharpshooter Fallacy

13:49 Confirmation Bias and the Fallacy

21:46 The Alcohol Industry and the Fallacy

24:03 The Texas Sharpshooter Fallacy: Drawing Conclusions from Selective Data

27:45 Applying the Texas Sharpshooter Fallacy in the Stock Market and Conspiracy Theories

38:42 Differentiating Between Logical Fallacies and Disagreements

41:34 Nostalgia and the Creation of False Equivalences

45:18 The Advanced Achievements of Ancient Civilizations

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