Following The "Fed Breadcrumbs" | Nick Timiraos on “Not Hot At All” Labor Market, Interest Rate Cuts, and Fed’s Collision Course With 2024 Election

Forward Guidance

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Nick’s work at WSJ: https://www.wsj.com/news/author/nick-timiraos

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Nick’s book https://www.amazon.com/Trillion-Dollar-Triage-President-Pandemic/dp/0316272817

Nick’s article on Fed and 2024 election: https://www.wsj.com/economy/central-banking/fed-interest-rate-cut-inflation-politics-a6e527de

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Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(12:35) VanEck Ad

(13:14) Interview Continues

(19:35) What Would It Take For The Fed To NOT Cut In September?

(24:17) Is The Federal Reserve Worried About A Weakening Labor Market?

(25:44) Immigration's Impact On U.S. Labor Market

(31:41) The Housing Market

(36:41) Permissionless Ad

(37:40) Politics And The Fed: "September Rate Cut Would Thrust Fed Into Brutal Election Campaign"

(47:24) It's Simply A Fact: Former President Donald Trump Likes Low Interest Rates

(50:37) Could Donald Trump Fire Fed Chair Jay Powell If Re-Elected President?

(54:49) Economic Forecasting Is Very Difficult, And There Is Always A Point of Data That Confirms One View Or Another

(57:47) What If High Interest Rates Are Actually Stimulative? Nick Doesn't Buy It (And Neither Does The Fed)

(01:02:44) The Way The Fed Thinks About Financial Conditions

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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.