Farm income estimates pinch growers | Weekly Commodity Market Update

Brownfield Ag News

This week Will and Ben discuss what farm income estimates mean for growers.

Market recap (changes on week as of Monday's close):

» December 2024 corn up $.06 at $4.07

» December 2025 corn up $.07 at $4.45

» November 2024 soybeans up $.18 at $10.18

» November 2025 soybeans up $.18 at $10.63

» December soybean oil up 1.51 cents at 40.48 cents/lb

» December soybean meal up $11.90 at $325.00/short ton

» December 2024 wheat up $.16 at $5.68

» July 2025 wheat up $.13 at $6.04

» October cotton down 1.61 cents at 67.54 cents/lb

» December cotton down 2.23 cents at 67.69 cents/lb

» October WTI Crude Oil down $4.98 at $68.85/barrel

Weekly highlights:

The US economy added 142,000 jobs in August- below expectations of 161,000 jobs. The US unemployment rate ticked lower to 4.2% from 4.3% and the annual wage rate increased 3.8%- up from 3.6% in July and 3.7% expectations.

Allendale estimated US corn and soybean yields at 182.5 and 53.33 bushels per acre, respectively. Stone X increased their 2024 US corn and soybean yield estimates in September from August to 182.9 and 53 bushels per acre respectively.

US stocks of crude oil were again down week over week by 289 million gallons. while distillate stocks were also down 16 million gallons. Gasoline stocks increased 36 million gallons.

US ethanol production pulled back again this week to 312 million gallons- down from 315 million gallons the week prior, but remains above the 291 in 2022 and 298 in 2023. Ethanol stocks were down 9 million gallons on the week but are 8% higher than the same period last year.

Soybeans crush for July came in at 193.5 million bushels- above the pre-report estimate of 192.1 million bushels and 183.7 million bushels in June and 184.8 in July 2023.

Corn crushed for ethanol in July was pegged at 474 million bushels- up from 446 in June and 455 last July.

The US Department of Agriculture released an update on Net Farm Income and Net Cash Farm Income last week showing better than previously reported income for 2024 but lower 2023 income. At 154.1 billion dollars, net cash farm income for 2024 is above the 20-year average by 6.2%

Open interest in Chicago commodities was down for wheats (-0.9%), Corn (-4.2%), and soybean meal (-1.0%). Open interest was flat for soybean oil (-0.001%) and up for soybean (+1.1%), Cotton (+1.6%), and Rough Rice (+6.5%).

Managed money traders were net buyers on the week of everything but rough rice covering some of their short positions. Traders bought 65,697, 18,343, and 22,455 contracts of corn, wheats, and soybeans respectively. Traders were buyers of 2,643 contracts of cotton but seller of 267 contracts of rough rice.

The 2023/24 marketing year is just over for corn, sorghum and soybeans which means large cancelations or rolls to the next year and that’s what we got this week. 2024/25 sales were strong at 71.7, and 60.9 million bushels for corn and soybeans respectively. Wheat sales at 12.5 million bushels were toward the bottom of expectations.

US grain and oilseed export inspections were neutral to slightly bearish on the week.

Corn, soybean, milo, and wheat export inspections for week ending September 5 of 32.9, 13.0, 0.1, and 21.6 million bushels, respectively, were all down week over week. US corn conditions ratings were 1 percentage point lower on the week to 64% good to excellent. US soybean ratings were steady at 65% good to excellent. 6% of the US winter wheat crop is planted at this point.

Topics:

» Market recap

» Strong private yield estimates

» Estimated farm income

» Soybean crush numbers

» Ethanol production

» Reports to watch

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