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Understanding (how bad) the Exponential Distribution (is)
Manage episode 425640886 series 2359252
Understanding (how bad) the Exponential Distribution (is)
podcast episode with speaker Chris Jackson
We often use probability distributions to help us characterize the likely values a random variable will have. This includes the random variable we call time to failure' or TTF, which is how long something works before it fails. Failure is a random process, but just because it is random, doesn't mean it's unpredictable. Products that wear-in will have vastly different probability distributions for TTF when compare do products that wear-out. So you need to have a good idea of the probability distribution of the TTF of your product when it comes to reliability engineering. But we often see in textbooks and standards the exponential distribution' simply being assumed as a good' TTF probability distribution. But is it? And what happens when it isn't but you use it anyway? Join this webinar to find out!
This Accendo Reliability webinar was originally broadcast on 25 June 2024.
To view the recorded video/audio and PDF workbook of the event, visit the webinar page.
Additional content that may be of interest
The 1 Parameter Exponential Distribution 7 Formulas article
The Exponential Distribution article
SOR 969 Common Reliability Mistakes episode
SOR 949 Forecasting Returns episode
SOR 880 Bathtub Curve Flaws episode
![Sketch of Claveaux XIIIe et XIVe siecles](https://s3-us-west-1.amazonaws.com/accendo-media/wp-media-folder-accendo-reliability/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/Claveaux.XIIIe_.et_.XIVe_.siecles-300x300T.png)
Making Use of Reliability Statistics
Let's find the motivation to use reliability statistics and find the resources to learn the statistical tools necessary to succeed.
![Sketch of Claveaux XIIIe XIVe siecle](https://s3-us-west-1.amazonaws.com/accendo-media/wp-media-folder-accendo-reliability/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/Claveaux.XIIIe_.XIVe_.siecle-300x300T.png)
R Software and Reliability
Let's explore R software's many capabilities concerning reliability statistics from field data analysis, to statistical process control.
![Sketch of Clavette medievale](https://s3-us-west-1.amazonaws.com/accendo-media/wp-media-folder-accendo-reliability/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/Clavette.medievale-300x300T.png)
Reliability Distributions and Their Use
Let's explore an array of distributions and the problems they can help solve in our day-to-day relaibility engineering work.
![](https://s3-us-west-1.amazonaws.com/accendo-media/wp-media-folder-accendo-reliability/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/Coupe.cuisine.abbaye.Saint_.Pierre.Chartres300x300T.png)
Practical Application of DOE
Perry discusses the basics of DOE (design of experiments) and fundamentals so you can get started with they useful product development tool.
![](https://s3-us-west-1.amazonaws.com/accendo-media/wp-media-folder-accendo-reliability/wp-content/uploads/2018/05/Escalier.Chateaudun300x300T.png)
Fundamentals of Sample Size Determination
Let's discuss the 6 basic considerations to estimate the necessary sample size to support decision making.
![](https://s3-us-west-1.amazonaws.com/accendo-media/wp-media-folder-accendo-reliability/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/Nef.Notre_.Dame_.Dijon300x300T.png)
Fundamentals of Measurement System Analysis
When we make a measurement, we inform a decision. It's important to have data that is true to the actual value.
![](https://s3-us-west-1.amazonaws.com/accendo-media/wp-media-folder-accendo-reliability/wp-content/uploads/2019/07/Plan.claveaux.coupole300x300T.png)
Creating Effective Reliability Graphics
One of the first things I learned about data analysis was to create a plot, another, and another. Let the data show you what needs attention.
![](https://s3-us-west-1.amazonaws.com/accendo-media/wp-media-folder-accendo-reliability/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/Clef.voute_.Semur_.en_.Auxois300x300T.png)
PDFs, CDFs, and other ‘Fs’ What the hell are they?
If you want a really easy introduction or review of these functions that help inform a decision then check out this webinar.
![](https://s3-us-west-1.amazonaws.com/accendo-media/wp-media-folder-accendo-reliability/wp-content/uploads/2023/06/Construction.romaine.cellulaire300x300T.png)
Discrete Distributions
Sometimes we have to work out how many of them we need (if they make up a fleet) or how many spare parts we need to keep them running.
![](https://s3-us-west-1.amazonaws.com/accendo-media/wp-media-folder-accendo-reliability/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/Clocher.Vernouillet.3300x300T.png)
Why We Use Statistics
Let's explore the ways we use, or should use, statistics as engineers. From gathering data to presenting, from analyzing to comparing.
![](https://s3-us-west-1.amazonaws.com/accendo-media/wp-media-folder-accendo-reliability/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/Cloitre.Laon_.2300x300T.png)
How to Check a Regression Fit
Let's explore what residuals are, where they come from, and how to evaluate them to detect if the fitted line (model) is adequate or not.
![](https://s3-us-west-1.amazonaws.com/accendo-media/wp-media-folder-accendo-reliability/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/Clocher.Auxerre.2300x300T.png)
Basic Mathematical Symbols and Stuff
This webinar is a light (re)introduction into common mathematical symbols used in many engineering scenarios including reliability.
![](https://s3-us-west-1.amazonaws.com/accendo-media/wp-media-folder-accendo-reliability/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/Clocher.Auxerre300x300T.png)
Confidence in Reliability
Reliability is a measure of your product or system. Confidence is a measure of you. But we often forget this.
![](https://s3-us-west-1.amazonaws.com/accendo-media/wp-media-folder-accendo-reliability/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/Cloitre.Puy_.en_.Velay300x300T.png)
Practical Measurement Systems Analysis for Design
How to calculate Gage discrimination - the more useful result for a design situation, and even how to use it for destructive tests.
![](https://s3-us-west-1.amazonaws.com/accendo-media/wp-media-folder-accendo-reliability/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/300px-Porche.eglise.Saint_.Urbain.Troyes300x300T.png)
What is the Weibull Distribution?
For those who conduct reliability data analysis or turning a jumble of dots (data points) into meaningful information
![](https://s3-us-west-1.amazonaws.com/accendo-media/wp-media-folder-accendo-reliability/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/Cloitre.Toul300x300T.png)
Where does the Bell Curve come from?
It is not just a pretty shape' that seems to work, It comes from a really cool physical phenomena that we find everywhere.
![](https://s3-us-west-1.amazonaws.com/accendo-media/wp-media-folder-accendo-reliability/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Corniche.tour_.de_.la_.Justice.Carcassonne300x300T-298x300.png)
Fundamentals of Hypothesis Testing
Let's examine a handful of parametric and non-parametric comparison tools, including various hypothesis tests.
![](https://s3-us-west-1.amazonaws.com/accendo-media/wp-media-folder-accendo-reliability/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/Corniche.maison.Troyes300x300T.png)
Understanding (how bad) the Exponential Distribution (is)
You need to have a good idea of the probability distribution of the TTF of your product when it comes to reliability engineering.
The post Understanding (how bad) the Exponential Distribution (is) appeared first on Accendo Reliability.
185 एपिसोडस
Manage episode 425640886 series 2359252
Understanding (how bad) the Exponential Distribution (is)
podcast episode with speaker Chris Jackson
We often use probability distributions to help us characterize the likely values a random variable will have. This includes the random variable we call time to failure' or TTF, which is how long something works before it fails. Failure is a random process, but just because it is random, doesn't mean it's unpredictable. Products that wear-in will have vastly different probability distributions for TTF when compare do products that wear-out. So you need to have a good idea of the probability distribution of the TTF of your product when it comes to reliability engineering. But we often see in textbooks and standards the exponential distribution' simply being assumed as a good' TTF probability distribution. But is it? And what happens when it isn't but you use it anyway? Join this webinar to find out!
This Accendo Reliability webinar was originally broadcast on 25 June 2024.
To view the recorded video/audio and PDF workbook of the event, visit the webinar page.
Additional content that may be of interest
The 1 Parameter Exponential Distribution 7 Formulas article
The Exponential Distribution article
SOR 969 Common Reliability Mistakes episode
SOR 949 Forecasting Returns episode
SOR 880 Bathtub Curve Flaws episode
![Sketch of Claveaux XIIIe et XIVe siecles](https://s3-us-west-1.amazonaws.com/accendo-media/wp-media-folder-accendo-reliability/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/Claveaux.XIIIe_.et_.XIVe_.siecles-300x300T.png)
Making Use of Reliability Statistics
Let's find the motivation to use reliability statistics and find the resources to learn the statistical tools necessary to succeed.
![Sketch of Claveaux XIIIe XIVe siecle](https://s3-us-west-1.amazonaws.com/accendo-media/wp-media-folder-accendo-reliability/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/Claveaux.XIIIe_.XIVe_.siecle-300x300T.png)
R Software and Reliability
Let's explore R software's many capabilities concerning reliability statistics from field data analysis, to statistical process control.
![Sketch of Clavette medievale](https://s3-us-west-1.amazonaws.com/accendo-media/wp-media-folder-accendo-reliability/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/Clavette.medievale-300x300T.png)
Reliability Distributions and Their Use
Let's explore an array of distributions and the problems they can help solve in our day-to-day relaibility engineering work.
![](https://s3-us-west-1.amazonaws.com/accendo-media/wp-media-folder-accendo-reliability/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/Coupe.cuisine.abbaye.Saint_.Pierre.Chartres300x300T.png)
Practical Application of DOE
Perry discusses the basics of DOE (design of experiments) and fundamentals so you can get started with they useful product development tool.
![](https://s3-us-west-1.amazonaws.com/accendo-media/wp-media-folder-accendo-reliability/wp-content/uploads/2018/05/Escalier.Chateaudun300x300T.png)
Fundamentals of Sample Size Determination
Let's discuss the 6 basic considerations to estimate the necessary sample size to support decision making.
![](https://s3-us-west-1.amazonaws.com/accendo-media/wp-media-folder-accendo-reliability/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/Nef.Notre_.Dame_.Dijon300x300T.png)
Fundamentals of Measurement System Analysis
When we make a measurement, we inform a decision. It's important to have data that is true to the actual value.
![](https://s3-us-west-1.amazonaws.com/accendo-media/wp-media-folder-accendo-reliability/wp-content/uploads/2019/07/Plan.claveaux.coupole300x300T.png)
Creating Effective Reliability Graphics
One of the first things I learned about data analysis was to create a plot, another, and another. Let the data show you what needs attention.
![](https://s3-us-west-1.amazonaws.com/accendo-media/wp-media-folder-accendo-reliability/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/Clef.voute_.Semur_.en_.Auxois300x300T.png)
PDFs, CDFs, and other ‘Fs’ What the hell are they?
If you want a really easy introduction or review of these functions that help inform a decision then check out this webinar.
![](https://s3-us-west-1.amazonaws.com/accendo-media/wp-media-folder-accendo-reliability/wp-content/uploads/2023/06/Construction.romaine.cellulaire300x300T.png)
Discrete Distributions
Sometimes we have to work out how many of them we need (if they make up a fleet) or how many spare parts we need to keep them running.
![](https://s3-us-west-1.amazonaws.com/accendo-media/wp-media-folder-accendo-reliability/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/Clocher.Vernouillet.3300x300T.png)
Why We Use Statistics
Let's explore the ways we use, or should use, statistics as engineers. From gathering data to presenting, from analyzing to comparing.
![](https://s3-us-west-1.amazonaws.com/accendo-media/wp-media-folder-accendo-reliability/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/Cloitre.Laon_.2300x300T.png)
How to Check a Regression Fit
Let's explore what residuals are, where they come from, and how to evaluate them to detect if the fitted line (model) is adequate or not.
![](https://s3-us-west-1.amazonaws.com/accendo-media/wp-media-folder-accendo-reliability/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/Clocher.Auxerre.2300x300T.png)
Basic Mathematical Symbols and Stuff
This webinar is a light (re)introduction into common mathematical symbols used in many engineering scenarios including reliability.
![](https://s3-us-west-1.amazonaws.com/accendo-media/wp-media-folder-accendo-reliability/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/Clocher.Auxerre300x300T.png)
Confidence in Reliability
Reliability is a measure of your product or system. Confidence is a measure of you. But we often forget this.
![](https://s3-us-west-1.amazonaws.com/accendo-media/wp-media-folder-accendo-reliability/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/Cloitre.Puy_.en_.Velay300x300T.png)
Practical Measurement Systems Analysis for Design
How to calculate Gage discrimination - the more useful result for a design situation, and even how to use it for destructive tests.
![](https://s3-us-west-1.amazonaws.com/accendo-media/wp-media-folder-accendo-reliability/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/300px-Porche.eglise.Saint_.Urbain.Troyes300x300T.png)
What is the Weibull Distribution?
For those who conduct reliability data analysis or turning a jumble of dots (data points) into meaningful information
![](https://s3-us-west-1.amazonaws.com/accendo-media/wp-media-folder-accendo-reliability/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/Cloitre.Toul300x300T.png)
Where does the Bell Curve come from?
It is not just a pretty shape' that seems to work, It comes from a really cool physical phenomena that we find everywhere.
![](https://s3-us-west-1.amazonaws.com/accendo-media/wp-media-folder-accendo-reliability/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Corniche.tour_.de_.la_.Justice.Carcassonne300x300T-298x300.png)
Fundamentals of Hypothesis Testing
Let's examine a handful of parametric and non-parametric comparison tools, including various hypothesis tests.
![](https://s3-us-west-1.amazonaws.com/accendo-media/wp-media-folder-accendo-reliability/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/Corniche.maison.Troyes300x300T.png)
Understanding (how bad) the Exponential Distribution (is)
You need to have a good idea of the probability distribution of the TTF of your product when it comes to reliability engineering.
The post Understanding (how bad) the Exponential Distribution (is) appeared first on Accendo Reliability.
185 एपिसोडस
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