The United States is an outlier in health insurance coverage. Almost all other high-income countries have near-universal coverage, while almost 10% of the non-elderly US population is uninsured. How did this come to be? And what can policymakers do to improve access to health insurance? Mark Shepard joins EconoFact Chats to discuss these questions.…

Since the release of ChatGPT in November 2022, improvements in large language models have continued at an impressive clip, driving a surge of investment in new models, developing new products based on them, and in constructing data centres and other infrastructure needed to run AI models. What will the economic landscape look like as artificial int…

Football and basketball teams at Division I universities generate billions in revenue. But the student-athletes themselves do not receive salaries. Should they? Most have scholarships for their tuitions, but to what degree are they students, as well as athletes? And how does the money raised through these big-ticket sports support other, less high-…

High intensity flooding events, storms, wildfires, and droughts are becoming more frequent in many parts of the world. Are there measures that can help mitigate the number and severity of these events? What adaptations could make fires, storms, and floods less destructive? And is there a greater role for the government and the private sector when i…

Much like national economies, countries that economically interact with each other need rules to help ensure markets work well, and that economic outcomes accord with some understanding of fairness and equity. While such rules can constrain what a country does, for much of the post-war era, nations have recognized the benefits of international coop…

The basic principles of economics are not only worthwhile reading for students, but for the wider public, and perhaps especially, for those involved in policy. Greg Mankiw, the author of best-selling textbooks for Macroeconomics and Principles of Economics joins EconoFact Chats to highlight how a wider understanding of economic principles such as t…

In 1860, the United States had no national currency, no national bank, and no income tax. Lincoln had a vision of advancing the economic fortunes of the country and fostering greater economic equality through, for example, incentivizing railroads and creating land-grant universities. He and his Treasury Secretary Salmon Chase also faced the challen…

Immigration promises to be a key issue in the U.S. Presidential elections. Candidates from both parties favor limits but differ on the extent of restrictions. Immigration is important for a vibrant economy in a country with a low rate of native population growth. What role has immigration played in U.S. economic and demographic growth in recent dec…

Both presidential candidates have supported tariffs, albeit at very different levels. Can tariffs bring back manufacturing jobs, reduce the trade deficit, and provide substantial revenues? Responding to a recent article in The Atlantic, Maurice Obstfeld and Kim Clausing highlight that steep, across the board tariffs, like those candidate Trump prop…

A center-right economic policy agenda has traditionally meant a focus on lower marginal tax rates, fiscal prudence, an openness to immigration, free trade and globalization. In recent years however, there has been significant change in the Republican Party's stance on some of these issues -- especially trade and immigration. Michael Strain of the A…

President-elect Trump's campaign promises included imposing broad tariffs to bolster U.S. manufacturing jobs, pursuing mass deportations to free jobs for U.S. citizens and ease the housing crunch, and assuming a greater role in setting monetary policy. How likely is it that these policies will be enacted and, if so, what would be their possible con…

Home insurance has traditionally protected people from catastrophic losses of what is, for many, their most valuable asset. But climate change has contributed to the increasing frequency and severity of destructive weather events and wildfires. Widespread losses stress the solvency of insurance markets while higher premiums contribute to lower rate…

The share of Americans working a full day from home rose from 7% in 2019 to 60% in the immediate wake of COVID in 2020. This share has now fallen to 25%, still well above its pre-COVID rate. What have the last four years revealed about the effects of working from home on productivity? Are employers right in worrying about shirking? What do employee…

Does the outcome of the 2024 election suggest a realignment of traditional voting patterns? Early data points to continuity along some dimensions, such as an expected anti-incumbency vote against Democrats. But there were also notable shifts among certain groups. For example, young people, who had largely tilted towards Democrats in recent election…

New technologies often result in significant change. Perhaps the most salient effect of automation has been labor displacement. At the beginning of the 20th century, agricultural employment gave way to more productive, and higher paying, manufacturing jobs. The growing middle class generated demand for new products and new industries. But more rece…

Japan's economy was seen as something of a juggernaut in the post World War II era, with growth averaging about 10% during the 1950s and 60s. Yet, in subsequent decades, with a stock market crash, and the bursting of a real estate bubble, Japan entered a period of stagnation and deflation, from which it is only now emerging. What drove Japan's rapi…

Mark Zandi, Chief Economist at Moody’s Analytics, points out that the American economy is currently the envy of the world. The outcome of the Presidential election could change the course of the economy since the two candidates have put forward very different policies. One key difference is the size and scope of tariffs. High and broad-based tariff…

Immigration policy has been called “the third rail” of American politics, with intense feelings on both sides of the issue. In this charged environment, it is important to know the facts about immigration, especially as they relate to economic outcomes. Consultants at Analysis Group, an economic consulting firm headquartered in Boston, published an…

Drug overdose deaths in the U.S. fell by 12.7% between May 2023 and 2024. As the Office of National Drug Control Policy notes, this marks the largest recorded reduction in overdose deaths. It also marks six consecutive months of reported decreases. What has driven the recent declines? Which policies and interventions have proven particularly effect…

Most of the United States’ population growth is now due to immigration. Among these is an estimated 11 to 12 million undocumented immigrants. Undocumented immigrants have been deported both through enforcement at the border and by being removed from within the United States. Recently, former President Trump has called for mass deportation of millio…

The economy often figures as a major topic of debate in the lead-up to elections. This election cycle is no exception. While both Presidential candidates have frequently discussed recent economic developments including inflation, trade, tariffs, infrastructure spending, and industrial policy, what economic policies are they likely to try implement …

The 2017 Tax Cut and Jobs Act was among the most sweeping realignments of the U.S. tax code in over three decades. It lowered tax rates, simplified taxes, raised the government debt, and was regressive, benefitting people who are well off more than the middle-class and the poor. But many of the Act's provisions are set to expire at the end of 2025 …

Economies have been subjected to profound disruptions from technological change in the past -- from the adoption of weaving machines in the 19th century, to the mechanization of agriculture, and the use of robotics in manufacturing. Yet, these disruptions very often led to a broad increase in societal wealth, and the creation of entirely new occupa…

Charitable giving in the United States as a percentage of national income, about 2%, is significantly higher than the comparable percentage in other rich countries. How do people decide which causes to support? One approach is “effective altruism” which focuses on what’s important (primarily saving lives, no matter where), what’s effective but negl…

The United States bills itself as a land of opportunity; where economic and social advancement depend on abilities, skills, and drive, rather than the circumstances into which one is born. But is this characterization accurate? How does the U.S. compare to other countries in terms of socio-economic mobility across generations? And does the ability …

Middle-income jobs have been declining over the past decades, leaving behind a polarized workforce, with one group of people doing high-skilled, well remunerated work, and another growing set, that are in low-wage, relatively economically insecure positions, that don't have much of a career ladder.Automation, globalization, and the shrinking role o…

How do people come to their views on issues like income inequality, tax policy, and immigration policy? What is the role of personal experience in forming these opinions? Do people’s views change when they are confronted with new information that challenges their existing ideas? This week on EconoFact Chats, Stefanie Stantcheva explains how diverge…

To what extent does where you live determine how you live? In particular, does growing up in a poor neighborhood reduce one's chances for economic and social advancement, greater educational achievement, and better health? Poor people typically live in poor neighborhoods. But would those people do better living in better-off settings? If so, what g…

There's evidence that economically better-off voters tilt Republican. But there is a paradox. While richer voters tilt Republican, richer states tend to vote Democrat. To discuss this apparent paradox, as well as issues of poll accuracy, and how much the state of the economy has mattered in recent mid-term elections, EconoFact Chats welcomes Andrew…

Doug Irwin joins Michael Klein on EconoFact Chats this week to discuss how ideas about free trade have changed over the last 250 years. While most economists today agree that free trade improves productive efficiency and offers consumers better choice, some of the objections to trade expressed by historical figures ranging from Alexander Hamilton t…

Presidential candidates promise economic prosperity. Yet views on how to achieve economic prosperity can diverge significantly — as they do between the policies of President Biden, which are likely to be largely adopted by the new Democratic nominee, and those of Presidential Candidate Trump. Will their proposed policies on taxes, immigration, tari…

Many view the greater integration of the world economy as a relatively modern phenomenon. Christopher Meissner puts the current level of international trade, the depth of global capital markets, and immigration in historical context, drawing on his new book One From the Many: The Global Economy Since 1850. Christopher explains how both technologica…

The official poverty rate in the U.S. stood at about 11.5% in 2022. But as Jeff Fuhrer highlights, this is almost certainly a vast undercounting. He estimates that about 40% of people struggle to afford basic necessities like food, housing, and transportation. He joins EconoFact Chats to discuss why official poverty measures underestimate poverty, …

The 2022 CHIPS Act allocated over $50 billion in incentives to boost domestic semiconductor manufacturing and research and development. Two years on, how successful has the Act been in bringing semiconductor fabrication to the United States? More broadly, what was the rationale behind offering sizeable incentives to onshore chip production? And as …

Tariffs are taxes. But unlike most taxes, politicians on both sides of the aisle are calling for maintaining or raising tariffs. The goal is to save jobs and raise revenue. But do tariffs help achieve these objectives? Kim Clausing joins EconoFact Chats to discuss her research on how tariffs negatively impact consumers, shift tax burdens away from …

China's share of manufacturing exports rose from just over 1% of the world's total in 1990, to almost one-fifth today. Research by Gordon Hanson and his co-authors documented how the 'China Shock' led to factory closures and job losses in places that had been producing apparel, shoes, furniture, simple electronics, and other goods that China now ex…

Electric vehicles are thought to represent a partial, but important solution to realizing net-zero emissions goals. Toward this end, the European Union, China, Japan, South Korea, and several U.S. states have declared their intention to ban gasoline and diesel cars. But how realistic is it to move to a fully electric vehicle fleet? And how desirabl…

Discussions about the circular economy, which emphasizes sharing, reusing, repairing, and recycling existing materials -- has traditionally been the remit of engineers, architects, and sociologists. Is there a role for economists in furthering our understanding of, and in fostering an economy where little is wasted? Don Fullerton of the University …

The use of economic sanctions has surged in recent decades. But what does the evidence say about their effectiveness in influencing the actions of other countries? And under what conditions are sanctions more likely to achieve their goals? Daniel Drezner joins EconoFact Chats to discuss these questions.Dan is a Professor of International Politics a…

U.S. unemployment remains low while inflation has fallen, even though it remains above its 2 percent target. But there remain public concerns about the economy. Binyamin Appelbaum of The New York Times, Scott Horsley of NPR, Greg Ip of The Wall Street Journal, and Heather Long of The Washington Post join EconoFact Chats to discuss some of the sourc…

“Grexit,” Greece dropping out of the Eurozone, seemed the most likely outcome of that country’s debt crisis in the early 2010s. There were fears that Grexit would be followed by a more widespread splintering of the Eurozone. But Greece and its creditors came to an agreement that enabled the country to service its debt and contributed to its subsequ…

The spring 2024 edition of the IMF's influential World Economic Outlook (WEO) projects 'steady but slow' growth of the world economy over the next two years. But Maurice Obstfeld, widely recognized as among the world’s leading expert in international economics, notes that while the recovery from the pandemic has proved surprisingly resilient, the W…

Michael Klein speaks with Michael Keen and Joel Slemrod about their new book, Rebellion, Rascals and Revenue: Tax Follies and Wisdom Through the Ages, highlighting the challenges governments face when taxing their citizens, how taxes alter people's behavior, and the difficulty in assessing who bears the burden of a particular tax.Note: This podcast…

Argentina has, in the last 120 years, fallen from one of the richest countries in the world to one that has seen numerous episodes when national income cratered, multiple debt defaults (forcing it to turn repeatedly to the IMF for bailouts), and hyperinflation. What have been the sources of these crises? Are the radical plans of the country’s new p…

In 2019, the U.S. Congressional Budget Office projected that net immigration in 2023 would total 1 million. More recent estimates from the agency put net immigration for 2023 at 3.3 million. How has increased immigration affected the post-COVID economic recovery in the U.S.? More broadly, what role does immigration play in the American economy? Wha…

In the wake of COVID, many colleges dropped SAT and ACT test requirements. Recently however, schools including Dartmouth, Yale, and Brown have mandated standardized test scores once again. Could the move hurt less economically privileged applicants? David Deming joins EconoFact Chats to highlight that even though standardized tests can be gamed by …

Economic analysis does not offer many answers when it comes to valuing efficiency gains versus disruptions to people and communities from changes brought about by international trade or technological change. Jeff Frieden joins EconoFact Chats to highlight that politics, while often messy, remains one of the only ways societies put a value on things…

At over $840 billion, the United States Department of Defense budget request for 2024 accounts for ~3% of national income, almost half of all Federal discretionary budget outlays, and over 35% of global military spending. Michael E. O’Hanlon of the Brookings Institution joins EconoFact Chats to put these figures in historical context, and discuss h…

Much of global trade in goods and services is denominated in U.S. dollars. The dollar is widely used for bilateral trade between countries other than the United States. And the use of the dollar is even more dominant in global financial transactions. What advantages accrue to the United States from the dominance of the dollar? Are there costs assoc…

The Bureau of Labor Statistics samples about 80,000 products and services each month to estimate headline inflation. But the published inflation rate, like many other aggregate statistics, masks very different price changes across categories of goods. What information can we glean from a more fine-grained look at price changes across more disaggreg…