The 2024 Election outcome is sharply affecting pre-market, with Donald Trump's election sending stocks higher. The S&P trendline is aiming for the 6000 or 6100 level. The question that remains is whether markets can sustain that trend. This time is different from the previous Trump win: Interest rates are falling and tax rates are lower now; yet, t…

Will the 2025 Election be The Most Important Election Ever? Yes...until 2028. Vote for the policy, not the personality: Child Care Credits case study. Markest are hangin' on ahead of the election, setting up for a post-election rally.Bond yields are the result of pre-election positioning; bond auction is next week. It's hard to buy when it's unpopu…

It's 2024 Election-eve: Hedge funds are long on a presumed outcome; watch for a pick up in volatility. The Fed meets on the day after the election; there are still about 100 S&P Companies left to report. Reference Lance's weekend article on buy backs, Wolf in Sheep's Clothing: Apple spent $100-B on stock buy backs, when they could have purchased In…

2024 isn’t over yet. So here are 10 smart money moves to make right now.Saving money should be a year-round endeavor, but life gets in the way just like anything else. So with 2024 coming to a swift, thankful end, take advantage of the fourth quarter to accelerate your financial acumen, bolster your balance sheet and successfully springboard into t…

Earnings Season continues as October ends: Microsoft and Meta reports reveal lowered expectations for 2025; Microstrategy is raising stakes on Bitcoin w $42-B buy: Will prove to be either brilliant or disastrous (only 6% of Bitcoin owners are active users); Apple & Amazon results will reveal more about consumer spending. Can famed investors Paul Tu…

Halloween preview & earnings parade; pre-election bond market auction action. Markets are hedging a bit ahead of elections. The latest JOLTS report was weaker than expected - more evidence of a slowing economy? Meanwhile, consumer confidence continues to confound, bouncing up in the latest Conference Board Confidence Index reading, especially for f…

A barrage of earnings reports this week reveals companies are beating lowered expectations, and revenue is down. McDonald's foot traffic is off (and interesting economic barometer); the story is surely unfolding of an economy that is slowing down. What do markets sell signals tell us? There are two ways for markets to correct: Consolidation, or pul…

Wrapping up the Month of October and beginning the strongest period for markets, November - April; what could throw a wrench into the works? (How about an election upset?) Markets are positioning for a specific, anticipated outcome. Life with the Roberts': Child #4 accepted at Baylor! The Halloween dress-rehearsal. Markets' positioning for election…

Gold Fish are changing their name to Chilean Sea Bass, and Spam will henceforth be known as Filet Mignon; the world has gone awry, and Richard & Jonathan discuss the surprise results from Tesla, Polymarket odds for the 2024 Election, and goal scooping and setting expectations for 2025. Richard compares the Saudi's newest, biggest building in the wo…

The Conference Board's Economic Surprise Index gauges exactly that: How surprised economists are when things don't pan out as they expected. Like the economy doing better than they think it ought, under the current conditions. Economists are setting themselves up for disappointment; more Americans are living paycheck-to-paycheck. Lance and Michael …

Markets sold off on Tuesday to break even. following six straight weeks of gains; still, markets have no fear of recession. Lance shares his personal strategy for Bonds (using his own money, not clients') When everyone is hating on Bonds is the time to buy. After the Election, the focus will return to Yields and Interest Rates. Lance next provides …

What does it mean when the Conference Board's Index of Leading Indicators (a predictor of the next six months' economic activity) post's a negative .5 reading...while markets seem to be able to find no ceiling? Who's right? Markets continue to be "just fine," although a potential for pullback by the end of October or beginning of November is antici…

Earnings estimates remain exceptionally optimistic, raising the question of whether consumer spending can sustain present levels (the source of earnings!) Investors should be careful averages, and remember that records are recrods for a reason. Why we're still expecting acorrection; we've had six strong weeks in a row, and a seventh is not out of t…

Richard & Jonathan recap their recent recruiting visit on the campus of Texas A&M University: There is hope for the next generation. Earnings season continues, discussion of Netflix and Lance's coffee rants. Anti-globalization & the China effect; the fallacy of International buys; "I love Lucy" & Vitametavegamin. Why fasting should be called slowin…

Retail Sales numbers today, and earnings recaps (so far) and previews; looking for an outsized seasonal adjustment to Retail Sales due to calendar anomalies; there's nothing overly concerning to markets. The big focus will be the election and it's outcome and control of House & Senate: The market hates uncertainty, and loves gridlock. Lance refutes…

Will the strength (or weakness) of the consumer be revealed in this week's Retail Sales report? Liquidity is continuing to flow into markets; if things are so good, why all the liquidity flows? Stock buy backs resume in 10-days, adding $6-B/day of more liquidity (which is NOT a return of capital to investors.) Energy stock exposure exoansion: As in…

Retail Sales figures should be interesting, as retailers were stocking up ahead of the short-lived dockworkers' strike. Lance previews Thanksgiving at the Roberts' house, featuring brisket! Earnings week continues with a string of the most negative earnings revisions in a long while. Markets operating under a seasonal buy signal and an ever-upward …

It's Earnings Season "Rush Week" this week, with the bulk of companies reporting 3rd Quarter results; after that, the stock buy back window is prepared to re-open, providing nearlt $1-T in funds to flood the markets. The median value of stock portfolios is $250k, up from $190k. Demand for AI chips is not going away. Markets entering the seasonallt-…

All was not hunky-dory in the recent Fed meeting, as the FOMC Meeting minutes reveal a split-decision on lowering rates by 50-bps vs 25-bps. Meanwhile, in the markets, the S&P is having its Best Year Ever since the "turn of the century." The current, rising wedge is both a bullish and bearish sign; CPI numbers will be today's trigger. Volatility in…

The Trauma of Hurricanes revisited: Hurricane Alicia (1983) remembered as Hurricane Milton bears down on Florida today; Lance shares his bizzare dream about aliens refuting Flat-earthers; why high interest rates are unsustainable. Fed rate cuts don't mean rates will go straight down. Why 4% rates cannot last for long. Markets rally amid price compr…

The key to successfully managing money is managing risk. Economnic news is absent; no 50bps rate cut in November, thanks to a strong jobs report, and markets are adjusting to that reality. One off shoot of Jobs report shows more workers seeking secondary, part time employment to make ends meet. Markets sold off on Monday, as price compresion contin…

This week marks the start of earnings season for Q; the 2024 Election and the next FOMC Meeting also add volatility to markets. Friday's Jobs report came in stronger than expected (leaving one to wonder what kind of revision to the numbers is to come). Within the report, 700k gubernment workers were added. The S&P on Friday rallied on the employmen…

Market preview & Fed possiblities as jobs numbers are releasaed today; anecdotal evidence that small businesses are making more credit inquiries to banks: A prelude to more growth? The Longshoreman's strike is suspended with a proposed 65% pay increase; raises the question of value in the cost of a college degree. The marriage of blue collar jobss …

A preview of tomorrow''s employment report an the phenomenon of "labor hoarding;" a weaker jobs report will not necessarily be recessionary. Markest are retesting support, and if it cannot hold, will trigger a sell signal. Lance's FEMA rant & JOLTS preview w Michael Lebowitz; the labor market is behaving like the housing market: no one is doing any…

A brief recap of the VP-debate; market futures are lower in search of a catalyst, and dislike the uncertainty preceeding an election. Markets have pulled backk thanks to investor exhaustion; Oil prices are on the rise amid escalation of hostilities in the Middle East, creating short-term risks until resolved. The Port Strike isn't 'the thing' that …

It's a big news week: The Dock Workers' strike has begun, Israel is launching a land assault into Lebanon, and celebrity deaths (Pete Rose, Kris Kristofferson) top the news. And Jimmy Carter turns 100. Meanwhile, Q3 Earnings Season commences after three very strong quarters of business in what has been one the of the best presidential years since t…

The last day of September brings the end of the month, end of the quarter, and a preview of the next round of corporate earnings. So far, no evidence of recession is appearing. Regardless of your investment thesis, money flow still matters most, and there's lots of money flowing into markets. China is most over-bought in years, thanks to Chinese go…

Jonthan & Jonathan stand in for Danny & Rich with a preview of today's PCE report, and inklings of dissent within the Fed on the latest rate cut. The handwriting is on the wall for Savers; time to reassess strategies as interest rates fall. Ho will the election outcomes affect your financial planning? Worst-case scenario: a contested election (the …

Plenty of things to move markets this week, including economic numbers and multiple Fed members' commentaries on why they did what they did last week. Are there more cuts to come? Millennial Earnings Season and no buy backs will impact markets soon. Is the AI trade dead? Don't count on it. Micron turned in a strong earnings report, and the CIA's ow…

Could the S&P hit 6,000 by the end of the year? Some prognosticators are saying so, hyped on exuberance, but consumer confidence is suggesting otherwise, and the foreshadowing is not great for the White House incumbent. Consumer spending & sentiment is incongruent with market expectations. Markets remain bullish, and another "Cup & Handle" formatio…

Oil prices conitnue to weaken in the face of optimism from analysts now forecasting an 18% gain in earnings in 2025. One of them is wrong. Lance and Jonathan discuss market clarity, Fed rate cuts, and the impact on the markets. Markets trade on the effective Fed rates; what's the sweet spot among market sectors when rates are coming down? Lance rev…

We're entering the last-half of September, which is typically the weaker period of an already, traditionally weak month in the markets. Earnings seasons is about to beging, and Q3 estimates have already been slashed; this isn't 1995, though: Is the Fed's rationaled for cutting raates going to be validated by this week's economic data? Markets ended…

Was the Fed's 50bps rate cut a "calibration?' We are still not at the Feds target for unemployment; the Fed's action was in response to conditions, not to help anyone politically. What will the Fed do next? The 50bps cut does nothing to help consumers. What is the neutral, real interest rate, now? Why a Fed rate cut is really bad news. How now to f…

The markets were right: The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by a half percent on Wednesday, and markets initially climbed, then sold off to end negative for the day. But after pondering overnight, market futures indicated a strong start to Thursday's trading day. If markets rally and hold through Friday, they will be set to hit all time highs, o…

It's Fed Day: The big question will be answered this afternoon, 'How much the cut?' Huge bets on 50-bp rate cut; will a quarter-point cut disappoint? Meanwhile, Retail Sales continue to weaken, but August numbers were better than expected. There is no apparent data to support a 50-bp rate cut. There is a credit debt wall coming; extreme market opti…

Today marks the start of the FOMC meeting, to be concluded with the latest interest rate announcement. Markets' expectations are for a half-percent cut; could a quarter-percent cut create disappointment on Wall Street? Microsoft announces and increase in its dividend payment (very different from a stock buy back). Kamala Harris' plans to raise taxe…

It's Fed week, and many are predicting a 60% chance the FOMC will drop rates by a half percent; elections are drawing nearer: How will markets behave? (Why the polls are never right) Markets' 4% loss two weeks ago followed by 4% recovery last week; reversal days tend to mark bottoms, but not always. Last weeks' reversal was very bullish, but that d…

Ratliff, but first a review of the markets: It's all about the Fed, and the grate debate is about rate. How much will they cut, and how many times? Watch for elevated volatility heading into the election; a divided-congress yields the best environment for markets. Who will have the best policies for the economy? What will your retirement look like?…

As we went to air this morning, Space-X astronauts are "space-walking," testing new spacesuits; is Elon Musk the real-live equivalent of Tony Stark? CPI prints cooler--but core CPI was hotter than expected. MEanwhile the NFIB Survey (showing conservative bent) shows increases in confidence wiped out as Harris capmaigns; policy matters. Markets Big …

Today marks the 23rd anniversary of the World Trade Center attacks; it's Inflation Day and post-Debate day. Market volatility tends to increase prior to Presidential elections; why policy matters. CPI is expected to show a .2% increase (it's ALWAYS expected at .2%!) Oil prices are a function of supply & demand. CPI will most impact markets today, a…

Lance Roberts previews the next Fed meeting and rate drop predictions; 2-yr Treasury yields are reflective of rate expectations. Forward earnings revisions continue to ratchet downward; markets must reprice on expectations, impacting performance. Monday's market rally was a disappointment; MACD sell signal is still in place. There are still barrier…

Markets are having a rough start for September; Will the be a correction before the election? Lance examines the buyer/seller dynamic. Markets will probably bound this week. Look for a moderate rally, which will provide opportunity to trim portfolio risk. September/October stock market volatility is expected, with markets de-risking going into the …

Will last month's Jobs and JOLTS reports show "normalization" of employment numbers to pre-Covid counts? What will the Fed response be, and what will that imply about the economy? Richard & Danny further explore the "sunsetting" of tax rate cuts initiated by the Trump administration, and who might be affected: Most likely, everyone will see an aver…

Lance Roberts previews the next Fed meeting: There's a 50-50-chance of a 50-bp rate cut; will tomorrow's jobs report show fewer jobs than before Covid? Numbers are suspect with labor "hoarding" a potential problem; negative revisions to JOLTS report, part of a trend of negative revisions back to 2002. Will Yields be 4% by Friday? What the bond mark…

The S&P 500 sank 2.1%, the Nasdaq lost 3.3%, and while the tech sector led stocks into the red, the Dow wasn't excluded from the bad day either, shedding over 600 points for a 1.5% loss. What's next? The Tuesday market dump was accompanied by weak manufacturing reports suggesting the economy is weakening. The Yield Curve actually un-inverted briefl…

It's a holiday-shortened trading week to kick off the new month: September & October tend to be weaker trading months. Look for light volume and the impact of the corporate buy back window open and closing; markets tend to de-risk ahead of elections. Markets closed Friday at July's all-time high amid much bullish optimism. Markets today could retes…

Market Resiliency: It's always about the Fed. Nvidia and the AI story is still alive; Treasuries are overbought; Dollar General and Big Lots are struggling, surprisingly; where are the cracks in the economy? THe unwinding of the Tech sector, and how Google lets you know you're fired. The push to working longer; more and more are depending more and …

Looking ahead to September; why election polling is wrong; policy differences between Harris and Trump, and potential impact on markets. Nvidia earnings report rundown and stock buy back announcement. Nvidia owns 80% of market share for GPU's for data centers, with a new Blackwell chip on the way. Syppy & demand will be key to pricing. Groth expect…

Markets and Investors await today's earnings report from Nvidia, which has been tagged, 'The Most Important Stock in the World.' Expectations are VERY high, so there is little room for marginal results: There is more risk of disappointment than odds of exceeding expectations. Markets continue to hang on following the mini-correction last week, foll…

Today's show is all over the place: Durable Goods take a big jump...unless you remove Aircraft. Astronauts stuck in space: Elon Musk to the rescue. Markets are overbought; risk remains in Carry Trade. Market correction will likely be short and shallow. What if: Nvidia's report tomorrow. Stocks are setting up for correction: Stocks on sale? Fallacie…