Will First Rate Cut be in September or November?

One Rental At A Time

In today's episode of "One Rental at a Time," we dive into the latest economic data and forecasts, including a hot jobs report and upcoming CPI and PPI releases. We discuss the implications of these numbers on potential Federal Reserve rate cuts and debate whether the first rate cut will come in September or November. We also examine the accuracy of current job numbers and what it means for the economy. Join us for an in-depth analysis and expert opinions on the future of interest rates.

[00:00] - Introduction and discussion on the hot jobs number and its implications.

[00:30] - Analysis of potential inaccuracies in the job numbers and their adjustments.

[02:00] - Examination of the unemployment rate and its importance over other job metrics.

[03:55] - Discussion on household vs. establishment surveys and their reliability.

[05:27] - The significance of the birth-death adjustment in job reports.

[07:01] - Forecasting the next rate cut based on unemployment and CPI data.

[08:00] - Presentation of recession watch indicators and their current status.

[09:00] - Detailed analysis of CPI trends and predictions for the coming months.

[16:00] - Debate on the timing of the first rate cut, with perspectives on both September and November.

[27:20] - Call to action for listeners to share their opinions on the timing of the rate cut.

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