Brazil is expected to overtake the United States as the leading in the world coming seaaon

Soybeans Market & trade

Brazil is forecast to overtake the United States as the leading soybean producer in the world during the 2019/20 season. Post revised up forecast for 2019/20 soybean planted area to 36.8 million hectares. The revision is based on the market exuberance over soybean prices in the last several months. Production is forecast at 123.5 million metric tons (mmt) based on trend yields. The delayed pace of planting should not significantly impact the harvest timeline, with the first soybeans harvested ready to ship in January. Soybean exports are forecast at 75 mmt for 2019/20. Post revised 2018/19 export estimate to 73 mmt based on record volume of exports in October and November. Post maintains the 2019/20 forecast of 44 mmt of soybeans destined for processing next season, driven by rising domestic demand for soy oil. Producers are cognizant that a trade accord between Washington and Beijing is almost certain to lessen Brazilian exports and exert downward pressure on Brazil’s soybean prices. Post forecasts a record crop for the 2019/20 year, at 123.5 million metric tons . Brazil’s previous record crop was 122 million metric tons, recorded in 2017/18 season. The 2019/20 production forecast is based on a return to trendline yields after the current season was adversely affected by inclement weather. Post forecasts yield at 3.36 metric tons per hectare. Notably, according to the forecast from the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimate (WASDE) issued by the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), U.S. soybean harvest will be less than 100 million metric tons in 2019/20, a drop of almost 20 percent on the previous season. Thus, as long as local weather across the key producing states does not deteriorate significantly, Brazil is expected to overtake the United States as the leading soybean producer in the world this coming season. All information is disponibilizaded in U.S. DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE In Report Name: Oilseeds and Products Update Date: December 27,2019 Report Number: BR2019-0065