Forecast Friday, Toyota Doesn’t Mince Words, NY ❤️s Cali

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We’ve got that Friday feeling as we give a full rundown of Cox Automotive’s Q3 Forecast report. We also talk about some very clear messaging coming from Toyota’s Dealer meetings happening in LasVegas, as well as NY’s efforts to be like California when it comes to EV rules.
Toyota shared internal data related to dealers selling over MSRP and also sends clear message of Dealer advocacy in Dealer meetings in LasVegas

  • After a broad study of data from the last year, Toyota said that Dealers selling vehicles over MSRP have doubled their profits, but lost market share
  • Dealers who sold at or under MSRP have TRIPLED profits and gained 16% market share collectively
  • Akido Toyoda also made it very clear that the company will not be pursuing any future that doesn’t involve their Dealer network as the primary method of selling and servicing of their vehicles which was met by a rousing round of applause from Dealers
  • In a press conference following the meetings, Mr. Toyoda said not only is California’s goal of 100% EVs by 2035 not realistic, but added that meeting the 50% mark by 2030 would be ‘very difficult.’
  • Electric vehicles “are just going to take longer than the media would like us to believe,” Toyoda told the dealers during their meeting. He vowed to offer the “widest possible” array of powertrains to propel cars cleanly. “That’s our strategy and we’re sticking to it."

New York Governor Kathy Hochul is in a hurry to follow in Gavin Newsom’s footsteps to adopt California’s plan to require all new vehicles sold to be EV or Plug in Hybrid vehicles by 2035

  • 68% EV or Hybrids by 2030. By 2035 only allows 20% to be plug in Hybrids
  • Hochul said in a statement that she has directed a state environmental agency to propose and finalize rules adopting California's plan setting yearly rising zero-emission vehicle rules starting in 2026 that phases out gasoline-only new car sales by 2035.
  • There will be a public hearing before rules are finalized

Cox’s Q3 Industry Insights and Sales Forecast Call which included ASOTU Alum Chief Economist Jonathan Smoke and Senior Economist Charlie Chesbrough delivered a barrage of insights into the shifting landscape of the industry heading into Q4. Here are some highlights

  • Consumer Sentiment had been improving until last week
  • Fastest and largest increases in interest rates since 1981 resulting in affordability crisis
  • Dealer sentiment is down after remaining steady most of the year citing declining profits and increased pressure to lower prices
  • Used cars showing relative strength
  • Wholesale to retail gap is increasing
  • Inventory on ground increasing quickly among 35k+ vehicles
  • Used monthly payments +42% from Sept $387 to $551 with $567 projected by Dec
  • Kia, Honda, Toyota continue to have extremely tight supplies
  • Ram, Jeep and Ford incentives ticking up in August
  • Jonathan Smoke brought us the fall playlist

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